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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          12/08 11:47

   The Cattle Complex Finally Sees Support in Thursday's Market

   The cash cattle market has a few bids being offered in the South, but 
otherwise the market remains extremely quiet.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into 
Thursday's afternoon as the market finally sees support from traders. The cash 
cattle market is hoping to improve from Wednesday's light trade in the North 
where cattle sold $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but time will 
tell. March corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up 
$8.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 177.22 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle market is trading higher into Thursday's afternoon as the 
market is pleased with the fact that boxed beef prices closed higher Wednesday 
afternoon and that prices are mixed in Thursday's midday report. The live 
cattle contracts are trading higher into Thursday's afternoon as the market has 
found support technically and hopes that cash prices grow stronger as the day 
trades on. December live cattle are up $0.47 at $152.40, February live cattle 
are up $0.42 at $153.97 and April live cattle are up $0.47 at $158.10. A few 
cash cattle bids are on the table in Kansas and Texas at $152 to $154. A light 
to moderate trade was reported in Nebraska and Iowa Wednesday with dressed 
deals marked at mostly $247, $2 lower than the previous week's weighted 
averages.

   Beef net sales of 1,600 mt for 2022 were primarily for China (4,800 mt, 
including decreases of 300 mt), Japan (1,600 mt, including decreases of 1,100 
mt), Mexico (900 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Canada (500 mt, including 
decreases of 200 mt), and Taiwan (400 mt, including decreases of 200 mt), were 
offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (7,900 MT).  Net sales of 16,300 
mt for 2023 were primarily for South Korea (13,100 mt), Japan (1,300 mt), Hong 
Kong (700 mt), China (300 mt), and Guatemala (300 mt).  Exports of 16,900 mt 
were primarily to South Korea (5,100 mt), Japan (4,300 MT), Mexico (1,900 mt), 
China (1,600 mt), and Taiwan (1,300 mt).  

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.32 ($246.64) and select up $1.52 
($221.29) with a movement of 59 loads (33.73 loads of choice, 7.35 loads of 
select, 3.59 loads of trim and 13.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Even with the corn contracts trading mildly higher into Thursday afternoon, 
the feeder cattle contracts are breaking out and posting a 65- to 245-point 
gain. Feeder cattle traders could be feeling more confident as recent boxed 
beef prices have found some support, which could incentivize buyers to restock 
their pens as they believe that packer demand will remain. January feeders are 
up $2.52 at $182.37, March feeders are up $1.42 at $184.67 and April feeders 
are up $1.47 at $188.07. The market won't like pressure the resistance at 
$183.77 as it wasn't able to successfully trade consistently above that 
threshold when challenged last time.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is hoping that some of the strong momentum that's 
driving cattle prices higher into Thursday's afternoon will spill over into the 
lean hog sector but at this point that's yet to happen. December lean hogs are 
down $0.80 at $81.57, February lean hogs are down $3.42 at $83.27 and April 
lean hogs are down $3.05 at $89.77. Thursday's weakness largely stems from the 
fact that Wednesday's afternoon pork cut value closed $5.37 lower, and with 
cold storage as plentiful as it is on bellies, the cutout will likely continue 
to fact push back.

   The projected lean hog index for Dec. 7 is down $0.31 with a weighted 
average of $82.47, and the actual index for Dec. 6 is down $0.16 at $82.78. Hog 
prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.32 with a 
weighted average of $80.99, ranging from $80.00 to $85.50 on 3,974 head and a 
five-day rolling average of $83.79. Pork cutouts totaled 129.35 loads with 
113.30 loads of pork cuts and 16.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up 
$2.39, $85.84.

   Pork net sales post reductions of 7,900 mt for 2022 resulting in increases 
for Mexico (3,100 mt, including decreases of 4,000 mt), China (900 mt, 
including decreases of 300 mt), Honduras (200 mt), the Dominican Republic (200 
mt, including decreases of 200 mt), and Chile (100 mt), were more than offset 
by reductions primarily for Japan (4,400 mt), Australia (3,400 mt), South Korea 
(2,300 mt), and Canada (2,200 mt).  Net sales of 2,400 mt for 2023 were 
primarily for Colombia (1,300 mt), Japan (500 mt), South Korea (200 mt), and 
Nicaragua (200 mt).  Exports of 32,500 mt were primarily to Mexico (15,900 mt), 
China (4,700 mt), Japan (3,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt), and Canada (1,900 
mt).

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

   **

   Cattlemen are eager for supply and demand mechanics to swing their way, but 
the market isn't completely free of hurdles as bearish concerns about the U.S. 
and global economies loom. Hear DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's thoughts 
on the 2023 cattle market at the all-virtual DTN Ag Summit on Dec. 12-13. Full 
details available at http://www.dtn.com/agsummit




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