DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/30 10:58
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 3
to 6 cents lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 490 points as active trade
continues. The dollar index is 70 points higher. Interest rate products are
mostly higher. Energies are lower with crude $1.20 lower. Livestock trade is
mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $2.50.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with trade heading for the lower end of the
range in pre-report action. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants
shutting down, with ethanol still trading at a 45-50 cent premium to unleaded
as demand collapses with crude scoring 18-year lows overnight. Corn basis will
likely continue to see pressure except for export oriented locations. Rains
have worked across much of the belt short term to slow early field work with
the extended forecast looking drier. Weekly export inspections jumped to 1.269
million metric tons. On the report, the average guess is for 94.325 million
acres on a range of 92.5 million to 96.4 million. On the May contract support
is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade moving back
towards the upper end of the range again with overnight buying continuing the
recent trend, with the day session finding selling again. Meal is $0.50 to
$1.50 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points higher. South America is continuing to
harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment with talks of
strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains very weak.
New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive
with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early planting. The
weekly export inspections were soft at 413,957 metric tons. The acre range on
the report, at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 ma to 87.1 ma. The
May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.73, and the recent high at $8.97
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with early gains evaporating yet
again. Weather threats remain limited for now. Russia continues to review
export policies for the short term as well. KC is at a 77-cent discount to
Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -39 with
wider action continuing. World export business has shifted towards Asia short
term with weekly export inspections at 363,881 metric tons, continuing the
recent range. On the report acres are expected at 44.982 million on a range of
44.35 million to 46.0 million. The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day
at $4.69, with resistance the $5.06 upper Bollinger Band.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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