El Nino Threatens Asia With Drought    09/22 06:21

   

   BANTEN, Indonesia (AP) -- All signs are pointing toward a record-breaking 
https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-climate-change-warming-drought-un-554b976f05f
a0a5583ab73c9d57467ff this year, which experts say may cause severe drought in 
Asia and other 
https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-climate-change-flood-drought-damage-7eafacd2b
cf04ade9d7f555dfd488178 across the world, threatening food security for 
millions of people.

   El Nino is part of a natural climate cycle of warming ocean temperatures, 
but this year's is expected to reach new extremes of drought, heat waves, 
flooding and other climate-related disruptions in South America, Africa and 
Asia.

   Southeast Asia is one of the world's most climate vulnerable regions. It's 
already beset by an energy crisis triggered by the https://apnews.com/hub/iran. 
El Nino is already fueling wildfires across farmland, depleting water supplies 
for major cities and hurting fish catches in the region.

   Asian governments that have been drawing on their financial reserves to 
mitigate https://apnews.com/projects/days-disrupted-after-iran-war/ of higher 
https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-wars-energy-asia-gas-oil-f22739369eb36cca
f87543459cfed320 and scarce 
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-fertilizer-exports-farming-3b7c92d58dba0817c
3aa8f1db47464b7 have less capacity to cope with this year's intensifying El 
Nino, which is forecast to peak in December.

   The phenomenon may amplify other crises in Southeast Asia, according to Paul 
Teng, with Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, who said, "El Nino is only 
compounding all the other problems that we see."

   Extreme El Nino may threaten global food security 

   During El Nino years, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are 
warmer than usual. This happens every few years and often 
https://apnews.com/article/warming-heat-climate-change-summer-el-nino-ffd31dd358
a894667c63f4c0a21cd677.

   This year, the seas already are hotter than average, with global oceans 
hitting new 
https://apnews.com/article/hottest-oceans-climate-change-el-nino-fisheries-9dd6e
cf3b358a89d2b3a5468d69dbdbc in August as the 
https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-disaster-big-one-threat-5b062254250a75
9483c94376d32ae478, said Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction 
Division at the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

   This 
https://apnews.com/video/el-nino-has-formed-in-the-pacific-and-could-set-records
-forecasters-say-809179ef2fc94f7795b88aa237877894 may be the "strongest in 
living memory," according to the United Kingdom's national weather and climate 
service. Similarly, the U.S.' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 
said there is a 69% chance that this will be the strongest recorded El Nino 
since record-keeping began in 1950.

   El Nino's impact will be felt 
https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-preparations-latin-america-climate-energy-tra
nsport-water-drought-67500aefa69ca35a067bc24628168c26, but it is expected to 
jeopardize food security worldwide. It could push at least 49 million more 
people into 
https://apnews.com/article/fao-wfp-hunger-report-famine-sudan-yemen-gaza-a399839
162c23531efc3e096d7d69b76 by the end of 2027, according to the United Nations' 
World Food Program.

   The problem will be worst in parts of Central America and southern Africa, 
with significant effects also anticipated in eastern Africa and South and 
Southeast Asia, warned the food agency.

   El Nino is already hitting parts of Asia 

   In Southeast Asia, wildfires are 
https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-bromo-park-peatland-wildfires-sumatra-borne
o-62225cc55f9cc8e35d05097fd5f024cf in Indonesia, sending up 
https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-forest-fires-south-sumatra-haze-16095c9a33f
f1653f74a3445645c8b8a. The water level of a major reservoir supplying the 
bustling capital city of Jakarta -- the world's biggest metropolis -- is 
dropping inch by inch.

   As the lake dries, the ruins of one of 11 villages that had been inundated 
by the reservoir have emerged, as alarm grows over the need for alternative 
water supplies for the city of 42 million.

   "I would have rather not moved. There were plenty of livelihood 
opportunities here," said Hussen, who only uses one name, as he ferried people 
across the receding reservoir.

   This is just the beginning, said Erma Yulihastin with Indonesia's Research 
Center for Climate and Atmosphere, who warned El Nino has only just begun its 
"super phase."

   Southeast Asia's fisheries brace for drought 

   Less rainfall and hotter temperatures are putting pressure on Southeast 
Asia's fisheries, an essential source of protein.

   It's a pressing problem along the 
https://apnews.com/article/cambodia-eels-fish-mekong-tonle-sap-2672faf10b8fb9b11
508111877dcec27, a river basin that flows through six nations and is being 
disrupted by 
https://apnews.com/article/rare-toxin-asia-food-energy-rivers-997fe49779594e0022
11352a019c1381 and https://apnews.com/article/3eadacaf016a4293991fc7fe23cc4115.

   "It's one punch after another," said Zeb Hogan, with the University of 
Nevada, Reno, who runs the research and conservation project, Wonders of the 
Mekong. "If the river doesn't catch a break, we will reach a point where it's 
no longer going to sustain people in the way that it always has."

   Lower flows are especially hard on communities along the Mekong that depend 
on predictable water levels for fishing and farming, said Kongmeng Ly, with the 
Mekong River Commission, an intergovernmental group for Cambodia, Laos, 
Thailand and Vietnam.

   Rice and palm oil supplies are at risk 

   Southeast Asia's wet season generally runs from June to October, when rains 
usually replenish reservoirs, cool overheated cities and supply water for 
irrigation ahead of the next planting season.

   Drought may force farmers to delay planting, reduce acreage or switch crops 
entirely, said Rafisura, with the U.N. "Agriculture is definitely on the front 
line," she said.

   Cutbacks in staple crops like rice and palm oil can have global impacts. The 
world's top three exporters of rice -- India, Vietnam and Thailand -- are among 
the nations most likely to be hit hard by El Nino this year.

   North of the Thai capital Bangkok, rice farmers like 55-year-old Boonmark 
Marksuuk are already facing tough choices. Apart from pricier fuel and 
fertilizer because of the war, he's spending most of his days pumping water 
into his rice fields because he no longer trusts the rain.

   El Nino is also bearing down on Indonesia and Malaysia, suppliers of about 
85% of the world's palm oil, which is used in everything from cookies and 
lipstick to toothpaste and laundry detergent.

   Malaysia's prime minister has ordered its Ministry of Agriculture and Food 
Security to find ways to mitigate El Nino's impact, which is forecast to hit 
Malaysia hardest in November.

   In Indonesia, farmers rely on rain to dissolve fertilizers into the soil to 
avoid burning the plants, explained Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian 
Palm Oil Association.

   "If it doesn't rain, everyone will definitely stop fertilizing," which will 
hurt national production, he said.

   While the total economic fallout of an extreme El Nino is hard to calculate, 
losses from past events have reached trillions of dollars, according to HSBC's 
Global Investment Research, which warns the numbers could be even bigger this 
time.

   Analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate this El Nino could 
push global food commodity prices up more than 15%.

   "Whatever happens to agriculture really determines whether people stay below 
or just slightly above the poverty line," Rafisura said. "Coming back to 
Southeast Asia, whatever happens here, the extent to which countries can 
protect production levels, will have global impacts."