Financial Markets                      03/10 09:34

   

   NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks are drifting lower Tuesday as Wall Street waits 
for the next signal on when the war with Iran may end and oil prices could stop 
spiking.

   The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% in morning trading, a day after its latest wild 
swing, this time careening from a sharp early loss to a solid gain by the end 
of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 250 points, or 0.5%, as 
of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1% lower.

   Moves were also modest in the oil market, which has been the center of 
action for financial markets because of worries about the potential for 
long-term disruptions to the energy industry in the Middle East.

   The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, was 
sitting at $91.47. That's down 7.6% from its settlement price the day before, 
but much of that decline happened before the end of the stock market's trading 
day on Monday. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude was also sitting close to where 
it was during the last moments of Monday's trading for U.S. stocks, at $87.49.

   Oil prices plunged Monday from a high of nearly $120 per barrel, its most 
expensive level since 2022, after President Donald Trump told CBS News he 
thinks "the war is very complete, pretty much." That raised hopes that the war 
may end sooner than later, which could allow oil to flow freely again from the 
Middle East to customers around the world.

   But Trump's comments later Monday, after the U.S. stock market finished 
trading, were not as clear. And a spokesperson for Iran's paramilitary 
Revolutionary Guard said that "Iran will determine when the war ends." Iran 
launched new attacks Tuesday at Israel and Gulf Arab countries, keeping 
pressure on the Middle East in a war started by Israel and the United States.

   That has Wall Street waiting for the next clue about how long the war may 
last.

   One point where Trump remained clear was his desire to keep the Strait of 
Hormuz open. The war has caused blockages in the a narrow waterway off Iran's 
coast, where a fifth of the world's oil sails on a typical day. That's been a 
central reason for oil prices' extreme swings recently, which have dominated 
other financial markets and raised worries about the global economy.

   "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of 
Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER 
than they have been hit thus far," Trump said in a posting on his social media 
network late Monday.

   "The outlook for oil right now is about as binary as it gets," according to 
Hakan Kaya, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

   "Either the Strait of Hormuz reopens and you see a massive unwind of the 
risk premium, or it stays shut and we are looking at the largest supply 
disruption in modern history. There is no middle ground, and that is why 
putting a number on it is almost irresponsible."

   The U.S. stock market has a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from 
past military conflicts, as long as oil prices don't stay too high for too 
long. Uncertainty about whether that may happen again has led to stunning 
swings up and down in markets worldwide, often hour-to-hour.

   If oil prices do stay high for long, household budgets already stretched by 
high inflation could break under the pressure. Companies would see their own 
bills jump for fuel and to stock items on their store shelves or in their data 
warehouses.

   Stock markets in Asia and Europe jumped in their first chance to react to 
Trump's comments from late Monday and the subsequent easing of oil prices. 
Indexes leaped 5.3% in South Korea, 2.2% in Hong Kong and 1.5% in France.

   Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 2.9% after the government released revised economic 
data that showed Japan's economy grew faster than initially estimated in the 
final quarter of last year, boosted by solid business investments.

   In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.12%, where 
it was late Monday.

   ___

   AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott and AP Videographer Ayaka 
McGill contributed.

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