Editor's Note: Today DTN is sharing content that is normally reserved for paying customers. Not a subscriber? Check here for a trial: https://www.dtn.com/…

**

It is that time of year again. Wheat harvest has commenced in southwestern Ontario which will eventually spread to the Quebec border. It's a time of year when your combine gets really dirty, and we appreciate that new invention called air conditioning. I have yet to join the wheat party but that will be happening in the next few days. So far, Ontario wheat yields have been pretty good and quality has been stellar.

As you all know, wheat is kind of the whipping boy of agricultural commodities. It's hard to get any respect and goes by the moniker "poverty grass." There are many reasons for that, one of which is it's usually the lowest grossing crop among corn and soybeans and is grown pretty well everywhere around the world. So, when there is a wheat shortage somewhere, that supply gap is always filled in by wheat flowing in from the cheapest destination. It is planted or harvested every month of the year around the world.

Wheat acres in the United States are down to historic record lows. There will be many reasons for this but certainly profitability would be one of the main ones. In Ontario it is not quite like that, as we have consistently had close to a million acres almost every year for the last few years. Wheat is grown for a rotation; it also is a soil conditioner for some of the vast clay regions in Ontario.

We've also had some very good provincial extension agents through the years that promoted wheat. They have always been very cognizant in explaining to farmers how wheat in your rotation actually can raise the yield of corn and soybeans in future years.

So, despite wheat not having the best reputation among farmers, it continues to live in Ontario. However, in the U.S. that is not the case as wheat acres continues to get lower and lower. Keep in mind, wheat is divided into classes such as soft white winter wheat, soft red winter wheat, hard red winter wheat and hard spring wheat that all have their own markets. Overseas there is a plethora of acres, which always means wheat in the export market is competing for how cheap it can be.

Demand for Ontario wheat is derived from flour mills across the province as well as in the U.S. Of course, some of our wheat, depending on quality, goes for livestock feed. Excess supply in Ontario will obviously see the wheat shipped out onto the export market. As you could imagine, all Ontario wheat producers would want their wheat to be used for human consumption to bring value back to the farm gate. Much of this depends on the quality of the wheat we get, but also our processing sector for value-added wheat products is too small to consume every kernel. We are not Egypt, which has the highest wheat consumption per capita in the world.

It sure would help if we were. If you have read this column over the years, you will know that I've talked about Egyptian wheat consumption per capita. I cannot imagine eating that much wheat. However, the wheat that we don't use in Ontario gets shipped out to new markets developed during the last several years. Mexico has been a much bigger buyer of Ontario wheat the last few years; it's a market that has been nurtured and developed partly by the Grain Farmers of Ontario. Ontario wheat is also shipped into Colombia and other places around the world. Once again, quality is very important.

What does quality mean? I don't know if I'm a good person to answer that. For instance, in my early career, farmers produced wheat and wheat was wheat. That's about it. However, with better varieties being developed and with the development of new and improved fungicides and application equipment, our wheat crops got much better in Ontario. On top of that, when you take your wheat to the elevator, it gets to the grading table, where several quality criteria await, like "falling numbers" which I'll never understand. It has something to do with the integrity of the starch within the wheat kernel. Remember, I look at everything through an agricultural economic lens. When my wheat hits the grading table all I see are discounts, premiums and the money involved.

Keep in mind wheat is about the only crop that I harvest in my short sleeves. So, in many ways it can be a pleasure to do. I also realize that many of my U.S. friends who farm in the American Midwest don't grow wheat. I've never quite understood how they keep their soil conditioned not growing wheat. However, they assure me they are doing just fine. Besides, some of them have said it would ruin their summer vacation.

The last big blow up in the wheat futures market happened when Russia invaded Ukraine. Cash wheat prices in Ontario exploded to a one-day high of approximately $15 a bushel. Prices now are approximately half of that, but still much higher than last year. As we look ahead, the Russia-Ukraine war is continuing, but the grain trading algorithms seemed to have not only that dialed in, but the Iran ceasefire thing, too.

For wheat producers out in the heat next week, all of this should help you focus on the wheat harvest at hand. It'll be hot, the combine will be coated with dust, but hopefully the end game is all about quality. Wheat is the only crop here we expose to four different seasons of risk, and then there is the grading table. Yes, wheat is the cockroach of grains. This week let's hope for good things.

**

The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.