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Last week we had some of the hottest days of the season with temperatures easily reaching into the 29-degree-Celsius (84 Fahrenheit) range in southwestern Ontario. However, just on cue we had a little bit of a change in the weather and there were frost warnings out shortly after. It just so happened that I got to planting soybeans, which is always a very special time. That's because I often plant them two or three times. There is something about a heavy clay soil that is very unforgiving when it comes to soybean emergence.

So, I'm hoping for good things, warmer weather and gentle rains. In Ontario this year we expect more than 3 million acres of soybeans and the beans have been planted in fits and starts across the province. Some of the heavy clays in the Niagara region, as well as southwestern Ontario, always challenge us. I hope to hit my stride this coming week with the hot sun over my shoulder.

Soybeans are a crop that I seem to fight all year. I grow non-GMO soybeans so maybe some of my battles aren't what you are used to. My main weed problems are wild carrot and giant ragweed. I seem to fight those weeds all year and never seem to win, but I keep trying. At the end of the day, I still don't have super weeds like Palmer amaranth, but I suppose that will come someday. My soybean yields have been rising throughout the years, but they still do not compare to the rise that I've seen in my corn yields. My prescription for soybean success is always a slightly dry year with timely rains in August and September. Wish me luck.

Soybean prices have been another matter. For instance, at the present time, old crop soybeans in Ontario are approximately $16.20 a bushel and new crop soybeans can be contracted for approximately $15.32 a bushel as of May 21. These prices are significantly higher than we saw last fall and they are significantly higher than we had available in 2025. This is good news and is one reason why I fight the wild carrot and the giant ragweed all summer. Of course, as a soybean producer in Ontario, I want those prices to get even higher and that Canadian dollar to stay lower.

If I have said anything during the last 39 years, it's probably something about the Canadian dollar and its effect on Ontario grain prices. For instance, at the present time we have old crop soybean basis levels of approximately $4.20 a bushel above the nearby July contract. It is this high because of the conversion on the 72-cent exchange on the U.S. dollar, but also because there's been a shortage of soybeans in eastern Canada. We are still dealing with all that lost production in soybeans from the eastern part of the country last year.

Some of this may come as a surprise to people. For instance, did you really think that prices would be about $2 or $3 higher versus last fall going into June of 2026? I didn't really think so, but of course it just goes to show you this is a very complex grain market. The war or lack of war in Iran has really upset the energy applecart and it has had an effect on grain prices. It just so happens soybean oil has that relationship with its crude cousin, partially putting soybeans at a higher level as we go into June. The question is what happens next?

As you know, our U.S. friends are planting the second biggest soybean crop in American history this year. We're looking at 4.43 billion bushels (bb) of soybeans with an average yield of 53 bushels per acre (bpa) on 84.7 million acres. We also had news come out on Sunday that the U.S. and China did reach a deal to increase the amount of U.S. agricultural commodities purchased. In fact, the White House reported that China will buy $17 billion worth of U.S. ag products in addition to the 25 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans agreed upon last October. (See https://www.dtnpf.com/…). That was a surprise and the market responded accordingly last Monday by rising significantly.

So where are soybean prices going, come November? Well, you all know that I'm holding out for $30 soybeans! Some of you have written me and repeated that line many times and I always tell you that I'm kind of kidding, sort of. We still have Brazil set to grow another 186 mmt and Argentina to come in with 48 mmt. That's after we get our growing season done here in North America. So, there are a lot of farmers chasing after that same goal.

The challenge for eastern Canadian farmers is to get those soybeans in the ground and get them off to a good start. Remember, I've always said that soybeans are the great liars but at the end of the day always tell the truth. There is a lot of risk management between here and then. If you have any tips on me fighting wild carrot or giant ragweed, you know where I will be.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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