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Ag Weather Forum
John Baranick 3/11 10:08 AM

A lot of the recent weather talk has been about the severe weather and heavy rains across the middle of the United States -- and for good reason. But it is still March and winter is just a short dip in temperature away from producing areas of heavy snow. Two storm systems are still yet to move through during the next five days and they will combine to produce some extremely strong winds and heavy snow across the northern tier of the country through March 15. Some blizzard conditions will be possible as well.

It's hard to think about the return of winter with how warm and rainy the middle of the country has been during the last couple of weeks. But cold air lurking up in Canada and a couple of pieces of energy that ride along the border region will combine to produce two strong storm systems capable of extremely strong winds and streaks of heavy snow.

The first system is moving into the Pacific Northwest on March 11 and will act like a clipper. It will move into the Northern Plains on March 12. The extreme difference in temperature from the Canadian Prairies, where temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit, to the Central Plains, where temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s F, will drive extremely strong winds as the low-pressure center deepens near the U.S.-Canada border.

Widespread wind gusts south of the low track of 50-60 mph will be quite common on Thursday, with peak gusts going over 70 miles per hour across Montana, Wyoming and into the western Dakotas and Nebraska throughout the day. A band of moderate to heavy snow is forecast to form on the northern side of the storm track, which will move into the Upper Midwest Thursday night and across the Great Lakes on Friday. Winds will not be nearly that strong but may still peak out at more than 50 mph across the Midwest.

The recent opening of the Great Lakes should help to enhance snowfall around the region as well. With the first storm, forecasts are calling for 3-6 inches of snow along the U.S-Canada border with enhanced amounts of 6-12 inches across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan due to lake enhancement. Some overlap of the winds and snow may be possible, which would result in at least reduced visibility if not blizzard conditions. But for most areas, the winds and snow hazards will be separate.

The second system may not have quite the strength in winds the first does, but it is likely to result in much more snowfall and has a greater risk of blizzard conditions. This second piece of energy will move into the Northern Plains on March 14, but a touch farther south than the previous one. The current track has the low-pressure center moving through northeast Wyoming and across northern Nebraska before it continues through Iowa before getting into the Great Lakes on March 15, deepening significantly as it does so.

The result should be a wide band of heavy snow across much of the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Lake-effect snow may continue after the storm passes by for March 16. Snow totals are still being worked out by models, but there is a significant risk of seeing 6-12 inches of snow across the Northern Plains, with more than 12 inches across the Great Lakes due to the lake enhancement and lake-effect snow that follows. Winds swirling around the system, especially on the western side of the storm track, are likely to increase into the 40-50 mph range with some gusts exceeding that across the Northern Plains and Midwest. There is likely to be some overlap in the strong winds and snowfall, which would result in blizzard conditions, especially on Sunday in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and Monday in the Great Lakes.

When combined, the two storm systems are likely to produce widespread areas of 6-12 inches of snow from Montana through Minnesota and Michigan while some areas around Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may get well over 2 feet. However, adjustments to the forecast are likely to be ongoing as the exact track will determine which areas receive heavy snow and which areas get little snowfall or rain. There is likely to be a sharp gradient on the southern edge of the snow bands which could lead to some areas near 6 inches going down to no accumulation over the matter of 20-30 miles.

After the weekend storm moves through, a burst of significant cold air will spread throughout the country. It will not last long though, as spring-like warmth is forecast to return in short order by the middle of next week.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

 
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