Heavy rain has fallen across the Central U.S. over the last couple of weeks. Last week, heavy rain inundated large areas of the Midwest along a stalled front, with more widespread moderate to heavy rain across the Plains. This week, a disturbance has stretched out across the Plains, bringing more heavy rain from New Mexico into Nebraska.

Over the weekend, showers will stretch into the western Midwest with more pockets of heavy rain as well. Earlier discussion of this current event can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. And for the third straight week, it appears the middle of the country will be in line for yet another burst of significant heavy rain. This time, it will be due to the remnants of a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Polo.

As of 6 a.m. CDT Friday, Sept. 25, Hurricane Polo is sitting off the Mexican coastline, about 250 miles southwest of Manzanillo. The official storm track from the National Hurricane Center has the Category 5 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, moving west for the rest of the day.

However, it is forecast to curve northward over the weekend, and then northeast through the Baja California Peninsula on Monday, Sept. 28, and through northwestern Mexico through Tuesday, Sept. 29. The hurricane will quickly degrade into a remnant low over the mountains of northern Mexico, but its continued trajectory northeast will bring it into the Southern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday, Sept. 29-30. There, the low will meet a cold front dropping through the Plains, and the two are forecast to combine into a larger, non-tropical cyclone. Models are mixed on the track and timing of the resulting low-pressure system thereafter, but it is likely that the low will move northeast through the Midwest for later next week and weekend.

The combination of tropical moisture with a dynamic cyclone usually brings heavy rainfall near the track and along the resulting fronts. Models are only beginning to understand the processes, and the forecast track, timing, and intensity are likely to be adjusted going into next week. But as of early Friday, it is likely that an area of the Central and Southern Plains, roughly from Texas to Kansas, northeast through the Ohio Valley, is in line to receive a swath of 2-4 inches of rain. Embedded thunderstorms and timing differences could lead to areas of more intense rainfall in some areas.

The hurricane has had a remarkable history so far. It was given the name Polo as a tropical storm on Monday, Sept. 21, and over the next 24 hours, Polo became a Category 5 hurricane by early morning of Tuesday, Sept. 22. The increase in sustained winds by 110 mph over a 24-hour period makes it one of the fastest rapid intensifications on record. Extremely warm waters due to the building Super El Nino in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and very little wind shear have caused the rapid intensification.

Polo is the 18th named tropical system in an extremely busy hurricane season for the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean. Since Tuesday, Polo has gone through multiple eyewall replacement cycles, which have caused the intensity to fluctuate, but it remains a Category 5 hurricane early Friday morning. Though the intensity is forecast to weaken as it moves northward this weekend, it is still likely to be a hurricane as it crosses over the Baja Peninsula.

Tropical moisture from Polo is expected to eject northeast through the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains well ahead of the storm on Monday and Tuesday, producing heavy rain in the southern Rockies and also the Plains along the front. Interaction with the front will cause more heavy rain from Texas northeastward along the track and lingering front across the Midwest.

This may be a massive step forward for a lot of areas in drought in these regions. The last few months of record heat and relative dryness will benefit from the deluge of rain that is coming. But those improvements will come at a cost. Flash flooding will be a significant risk, especially if the heavy rain falls over areas that have already seen a lot of rain over the last two weeks. Severe thunderstorms will be possible near and south of the low's track through the U.S. Strong winds and tornadoes will be a distinct possibility. Farmers and ranchers could see large issues with flooding of pastures and any winter crops that have recently been planted. For those with crops still out in the field, flooding could cause damage, drops in quality, and delays to harvest.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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