As El Nino intensifies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, one of its strongest international effects -- a drier trend in Australia wheat production areas -- is also asserting itself.

The 30-day period from August 22-September 20, 2026 saw precipitation totals in the eastern Australian states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria total no more than 25% of normal. South Australia had a similarly meager precipitation total relative to normal. Of Australia's major wheat-producing states, only Western Australia had some sectors with normal to above-normal precipitation amounts.

This drier pattern is typical of El Nino's impact, changing the ocean water temperature off the Pacific coast of Australia from warm to cooler, as El Nino-related trade winds move water around the entire Pacific basin. "With relatively cooler waters off the (Australia) coast, both north and east, moisture is reduced and high pressure sinks into more of the country," explained DTN ag meteorologist John Baranick in a May 2026 post. "This results in drier conditions that tend to be very harmful for agriculture and for water supplies."

You don't have to look too far to find years when El Nino has dried things out in Australia. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology outlined the following adverse effects on Australia's weather during the El Nino event of 2023-24: "The last El Niño was a moderate to strong event that developed in spring 2023 and lasted into early 2024. August to October 2023 was Australia's driest 3-month period on record."

The August to October time frame is important for the winter wheat cycle, as this is the time when wheat enters its grain-producing stages. And back in 2023-24, the record dryness at this time was a key factor in a sharp decline in Australia's wheat production. After record numbers in the previous three seasons, the 2023-24 Australia wheat crop suffered a 34% decline in production, the largest year-to-year decline in six years and the third-largest drop in 20 years. That's the impact that El Nino-related dryness can have on Australia's -- and the world's -- wheat crop.

The prospect of drier conditions will continue to be an important feature of Australia's crop weather discussion. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology notes that, since the start of this year, drier-than-average conditions have been recorded in northeastern New South Wales and southern Queensland; southern Victoria; western and northern Tasmania; and parts of Western Australia, including the southwestern corner. The New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia regions are major wheat-growing areas. And the El Nino-enhanced dryness adds to these deficits while the wheat crop needs increase.

John Baranick's May 8, 2026 discussion on El Nino's impact worldwide is available here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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