On Feb. 2, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise, Idaho, released its wildland fire outlooks for February through May. The agency placed portions of the Central and Southern Plains in an above-normal wildland fire potential for both February and March. Drought, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and previous winter storms are the main contributors to the wildfire outlooks for these regions.

The latest United States Drought Monitor, from Feb. 5, shows about 69% of the state of Texas affected by moderate (D1) to exceptional (D4) drought. Oklahoma is around 74%. Compared to a year ago, only 8% of Oklahoma had D1-D4 drought while Texas sat at 41%. Drought coverage is considerably more across the Southern Plains early this year compared to early 2025, which could contribute to a more active spring wildfire season.

In addition to the ongoing drought, ENSO conditions will play a role in the wildfire season across the Plains. ENSO is tracked by monitoring ocean temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Earlier this winter, the La Nina phase of ENSO was present, where ocean temperatures were above average. However, in recent weeks, the ocean has started to cool off, and this has weakened the La Nina phase.

As La Nina weakens, it will still have some implications for precipitation and temperature patterns in the Plains. For the rest of February, DTN is forecasting that temperatures throughout the Plains will average around 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit above average. The warmth could continue into March throughout the Southern Plains, trending cooler in the Central Plains. Above-average temperatures will certainly play a role in drying out wildfire fuels, like dormant grass, faster.

Below-average precipitation will also contribute to an increase in the wildfire threat. DTN favors above-average precipitation from Kansas into West Texas for February but by March, most of these states could have below-average precipitation. The storm track will likely shift east with above-average precipitation favoring the Ohio Valley into the Mississippi Delta. Luckily, by April and May the storm track could again favor the Southern and Central Plains.

March stands out with risks for both below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures. However, in the NIFC's report it also mentioned the importance of two major winter storms that affected the Central and Southern Plains this winter. Heavy snow amounts and ice from freezing rain could affect grass and pine trees. Compacted grass from heavy snow could require longer periods of drying compared to standing grass. Across the Southeast Plains, where trees are more abundant, freezing rain could have led to more pine needles and fine debris discarded onto the ground that would only take a matter of weeks to be more receptive to fires.

Throughout the spring, warm, windy and dry days will lead to higher risks for wildfires. The National Weather Service's local forecast offices will issue Fire Weather Watches (FWW) and Red Flag Warnings (RFW) when weather conditions become critical. Both FWWs and RFWs require that sustained winds average 15 mph or greater with relative humidity at 25% or less and an air temperature of 75 degrees F or greater. The main difference between an FWW and RFW is that an FWW can be issued 48 hours in advance of the critical fire weather conditions while an RFW is issued if there is an ongoing wildfire or critical weather conditions will occur within the next 24 hours. To stay up to date on the latest wildfire conditions from the National Weather Service, you may visit: https://www.weather.gov/….

The full NIFC report from Feb. 2 can be found here: https://www.nifc.gov/….

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.