In its December 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA surprised traders a bit with a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. corn exports to another record-large number. The torrid (delayed) export sales pace data, along with the impressive up-to-date weekly inspections, painted a bullish picture for demand. However, lest we be caught up in the euphoria, we must realize that ending stocks are still over 2 billion bushels (bb).

We will look at some of the changes in both U.S. and world numbers in the Dec. 9 report, starting with corn.

CORN

With the pre-report Dow Jones analyst survey, the assumption was that we could see a modest boost in U.S. export demand. The delayed export sales report through Nov. 6 revealed corn sales were roughly 40% higher than a year ago, with weekly inspection data even more impressive at nearly 70% higher. That would surely warrant an increase, but I think few expected the boost of 125 million bushels (mb) that USDA released. That sent ending stocks down by 125 bb to a still-hefty 2.029 bb. Traders had expected ending stocks to be 2.166 bb. In its commentary, USDA suggested the robust pace of corn demand would lead to September through November shipments exceeding a record 800 mb. Corn futures got a modest bounce from the data, but traders realize ending stocks are still over 2 bb with plenty of export competition ahead from Ukraine, Argentina and even possibly low-protein Argentine wheat.

On the global front, there were other minor changes to the world balance sheets. Russia and the European Union had higher production, with Ukraine production falling by 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 29 mmt (1.14 bb) and exports reduced by half of that difference to 23 mmt (905 mb). There were other minor changes, with the net impact being a decline of just over 2.1 mmt in global ending stocks to 279.2 mmt (11 bb).

March corn finished up 4 1/4 cents to settle at $4.48 on Tuesday.

SOYBEANS

The December WASDE was certainly a "ho-hum" report with respect to soybeans, and especially the domestic balance sheet, which was left entirely untouched. I am not sure anyone will believe that, after China has thus far bought some 9 mmt (330 mb) less than promised this calendar year, and export inspections are down 45%. Based on soy inspections to date, they are running over 390 mb below a year ago. However, USDA must have some optimism that China will ultimately buy what was pledged. Soybean futures reacted little to the report, remaining down over 6 cents on January as they were prior to the report release.

On the world front, there were only minor changes. Global soy production rose by a modest 800,000 metric tons (mt) with higher production in Russia and India somewhat offset by lower production in Canada and Ukraine. There were no changes for China. The result was only a modest 400,000-mt rise in stocks to 122.4 mmt (4.5 bb). There were no changes in South American soy production, with Brazil still on target for a record 175 mmt (6.4 bb).

January soybean futures ended the day close to where they began, down 6 1/2 cents to close at $10.87 1/4.

WHEAT

Traders were expecting only modest changes in the U.S. wheat balance sheet, and they ended up with no change at all. With the solid pace of exports to date despite the almost daily barrage of rising world production, traders had expected a possible increase in U.S. wheat exports. Instead, those remained the same. The only change on the domestic balance sheet was a by-class adjustment of 5 mb more in ending stocks of hard red spring and the opposite in white wheat with ending stocks falling by 5 mb to 87 mb.

On the world front, there were some significant changes, but traders had mostly expected those. Major-exporter wheat stocks rose by 8.7 mmt (319 mb) from November. Canada's crop was raised by 3 mmt to a record-large 40 mmt (1.47 bb). Argentina's crop was also increased to a record 24 mmt (881 mb), which may still be light, as the Buenos Aires Exchange reports 25.5 mmt (937 mb), and some private analysts hint at 26 mmt to 27 mmt. European Union production rose by 1.7 mmt to 144 mmt (5.29 bb), and Australian and Russian wheat crops were each increased by 1 mmt to 37 mmt (1.36 bb) and 87.5 mmt (3.2 bb), respectively.

Global wheat consumption was increased by 4.1 mmt, mostly due to higher feed and residual usage, and global ending wheat stocks rose by 3.4 mmt to 274.9 mmt (10.1 bb), with the trade looking for something around 2 mmt less.

Wheat finished with a mixed close, with Chicago down 1/4 cent and Kansas City up 1/2 cent.

ANALYST THOUGHTS

In short, the December WASDE report held little fanfare for both soybeans and wheat, while the corn market got a boost from higher-than-expected U.S. exports. However, little has changed in the overall theme of plentiful world supplies. Traders will be keeping a close eye on China's actions over the next few months. The tepid demand for U.S. beans so far has the added challenge of far cheaper South American supplies and what is expected to be a record-large Brazilian harvest that will begin in just four to six weeks. Stay tuned.

Dana Mantini can be reached at dana.mantini@dtn.com

Follow Dana Mantini on Twitter @mantini_r

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