It seems to be two steps forward and one step backward for producers in the Canadian Prairies. Winter has tried to hang on as long as it could, with a late-April snowstorm and cold air in early May producing frosts and freezes. Temperatures this week have risen above normal, getting equipment rolling in the fields. But another system will bring down some cold air to sit in the region for multiple days, creating some more issues for progress.

Recent crop progress reports from the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have all showcased a slower-than-normal start to the seeding process owing to mostly low temperatures, but also some unfavorable wet spots across the far north. Ice can still be found by satellite across some of the larger lakes in the region as well, a testament to the overall low temperatures so far this spring.

The reports during the next week should show some much better progress as above-normal temperatures with highs above 20 degrees Celsius become more of a widespread feature. Some areas across the south have been nearing 30 C during the middle of this week as well. But those warmer conditions will be fleeting once again. Cold air is setting up to return to the region by May 15 behind a stronger system moving into the region on Wednesday, May 13.

The system is a strong one, producing strong winds swirling around the low-pressure system for Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will rotate around the low as well, including some potential severe weather for parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan that would mean severe winds over 80 kilometers per hour and hail greater potentially than 5 centimeters. The widespread precipitation will help to moisten up some areas across the south that have been dry lately, but it will also cause some wet spots and flooding across the wetter north.

As the low-pressure center moves eastward into Ontario on Friday, cold air will sweep down through the region. In doing so, some of the rain that will continue across the north will turn to snow, causing some accumulations. Models do not suggest a lot of heavy snow would be expected, but parts of northeastern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan could get up to 15 cm. Cold air lingering afterward would cause this to slowly melt, delaying fieldwork plans further.

The cold air will be most intense on Saturday and Sunday mornings, May 16-17, as widespread areas of the region will fall below freezing. Frosts and freezes may remain possible for several days next week as well, especially across the north and east. The continued cold air will cause a slower rise in soil temperature or even a reversal toward lower temperatures. Additional rainfall is expected over the southeast on Sunday with a system moving through the northern U.S. Plains. Occasional showers will flow through the region in the cold air through much of next week as well.

The combination of wet and cold can cause producers to continue to be slow in their seeding progress that is already slower than normal. The seeding window has already been shortened by the cold and it looks to continue that trend for at least one more week. The last week of May is trending warmer, but also with periods of showers as well.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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