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Ag Weather Forum
John Baranick 8/21 11:10 AM

A relentless heat wave has gripped the South-Central U.S. throughout August, with Oklahoma and Texas bearing the brunt -- recording triple-digit temperatures on nearly every day of the month. Heat advisories and warnings have been continuous. And the forecast going forward continues to call for this type of heat through the end of the month -- perhaps even longer.

The states of Oklahoma and Texas are no stranger to 100-degree temperatures. With average highs for August in the mid- to upper-90s, getting up to 100 degrees is not that difficult to achieve. That happens somewhat frequently during the month for several sites in these areas. However, this year has seen that threshold consistently surpassed throughout the entire month, and the higher heat has reached into nearby states across the South-Central U.S. as well. Below is a table of various sites across the South-Central U.S. The table is organized by the number of observed days plus the DTN forecast that exceeds the average number of 100-degree days in August. Average days were calculated with data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, which you can find here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/…

Site Average Days At/Above 100 F in August Observed + DTN Forecast At/Above 100 F Days Above Average
Springfield, MO 0.94 3 2.06
Shreveport, LA 3.53 9 5.47
Wichita, KS 4.30 11 6.70
Monroe, LA 2.95 11 8.05
Little Rock, AR 2.33 12 9.61
Lubbock, TX 2.31 14 11.69
Enid, OK 8.04 20 11.96
Tyler, TX 4.64 17 12.36
Tulsa, OK 6.20 19 12.80
San Antonio, TX 4.70 18 13.30
Wichita Falls, TX 12.68 29 16.32
Amarillo, TX 1.69 19 17.31
Fort Smith, AR 4.66 22 17.34
Lawton, OK 11.30 29 17.70
Stillwater, OK 6.08 21 17.92
Oklahoma City, OK 5.03 23 17.97
Waco, TX 10.07 29 18.97
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 8.07 28 19.93
Austin, TX 7.49 29 21.51
Abilene, TX 6.02 30 23.98

Abilene, Texas, shows up with the most days observed and forecast of at least 100 degrees F at 30. Only Aug. 1 was below the century mark with a high of 98 F, and the forecast has at least 100 F each day through the end of the month. That is roughly 24 more days than a normal August. A few other sites only missed the threshold during the first two or three days of the month. And many sites in the region are forecasting the threshold to be reached at least 20 days of the month, or about two-thirds, which is an incredibly steady heat wave for an entire month. Some days that miss or have missed the threshold will have done so by only a degree or two, as well.

The cause of the heat has been a steady upper-level ridge that has been sitting across the South-Central U.S. all month long. This feature has been incredibly stout, disallowing fronts from crossing into the region that would bring in some milder temperatures and precipitation to limit the heating. This feature is forecast to remain in the region through the end of the month, and models suggest the ridge will be sticking around in early September as well. However, as daylight hours gradually shorten going into September, it becomes much harder to hit the 100-degree mark, even with a strong ridge. But if this feature remains stout, it may be possible to add a few more 100-degree days in early September.

This type of heat and dryness is leading to increasing drought conditions across the region. As DTN's Bryce Anderson points out here, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, the drought could cause a significant impact to winter crop planting for emergence and also as a forage for livestock this fall.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

 
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